Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 21.029746 22.945976 25.074719 27.638994 30.677552 34.207373 38.685995
2025-01-19 18.822255 21.483465 24.686731 28.924648 34.548339 42.025989 53.265101
2025-01-26 16.712715 19.651570 23.387445 28.677145 36.344665 47.789641 68.064478
2025-02-02 15.312457 18.430493 22.571645 28.779933 38.518772 54.784214 89.324206
2025-02-09 14.291289 17.534091 22.001541 29.040226 40.912860 63.089065 121.049619
2025-02-16 13.426059 16.727404 21.413085 29.111127 42.956831 71.737728 166.662068
2025-02-23 12.603643 15.885106 20.649446 28.737336 44.066380 79.060375 226.042742
2025-03-02 12.001350 15.295502 20.185313 28.762422 45.926901 89.418647 343.717614
2025-03-09 11.428739 14.696463 19.634759 28.534798 47.195790 99.246028 551.736666
2025-03-16 10.913448 14.141009 19.094219 28.235119 48.224778 109.393384 1018.924970
2025-03-23 10.462389 13.649546 18.609316 27.964028 49.253106 120.801210 2765.376909
2025-03-30 10.078044 13.233986 18.211161 27.800090 50.511016 134.917848 883412.219005
2025-04-06 9.634096 12.705907 17.593830 27.147203 50.409493 143.535968 NaN
2025-04-13 9.528733 12.701572 17.863247 28.324884 55.714181 191.740608 NaN
2025-04-20 9.205986 12.331211 17.467496 28.056686 56.777547 217.379437 NaN
2025-04-27 8.961572 12.073177 17.249496 28.143107 59.015118 262.191739 NaN
2025-05-04 8.757855 11.869513 17.111948 28.388230 61.919376 332.498524 NaN
2025-05-11 8.544864 11.638968 16.907753 28.454085 64.276510 420.510010 NaN
2025-05-18 8.292315 11.330775 16.539989 28.093315 64.952883 493.900845 NaN
2025-05-25 8.104245 11.121698 16.343123 28.117028 67.197258 656.445399 NaN
2025-06-01 7.899133 10.874894 16.059800 27.897726 68.406281 844.133745 NaN
2025-06-08 7.698477 10.627564 15.761351 27.609103 69.254291 1094.944409 NaN
2025-06-15 7.512620 10.398324 15.485074 27.347984 70.175284 1503.018393 NaN